|
|
 Originally Posted by Pelion
I think he will be continuing around 20%
[...]
Hero raises €1.40 (or more?)
Raising the minimum amount to get the desired result is your goal in a bluff.
Pure bluff:
0.8*1.05 - 0.2*1.40 = 0.56
Your raise amount is +EV if you always lose when called. The amount you raise is in the minus term of the EV calc, so the bigger the raise, the smaller the EV.
The tricky thing is that the size of the raise can directly effect the % of hands Villain calls with. Generally, smaller raises get called more often and bigger raise get called less often, so there is a sweet spot in bet sizing that can be elusive.
In your example, if Villain continues with 20% to any raise sizing, then a min-raise is optimal.
0.8*1.05 - 0.2*0.40 = 0.83
Again, this is simplified to assume you have 0 equity when called.
What if a min-raise makes Villain call with 30% of his range?
0.7*1.05 - 0.3*0.40 = 0.61
That's still more EV than your sizing of 1.4, but lol just a hypothetical.
How about another one?
What if a raise to 2.00 makes Villain only continue with 10% of his range?
0.9*1.05 - 0.1*2.00 = 0.75
So there's a lot going on there and Villain's tendencies need to be at least somewhat known to make an educated guess about the "best" sizing.
|
Reply With Quote